Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Hello opportunity, my name is Chris

As I wrote on my August 16th post referring to the DJIA , "We could be setting ourselves up for a double top." Feel free to look at this next picture and tell me what you see...

We couldn't have asked for a better setup,

  • A double top has formed
  • The MACD has a decidedly negative correlation
  • Volume is drying up as the stock keeps going higher

Using my three rules for trading from the post “Keep It Simple Stupid”

  1. We have a great reason for buying the DXD; technicals show amazing potential, and fundamentals show a slowing economy with a flat yield curve.
  2. I see no conflicts that aren’t already priced in.
  3. Timeframe is short to medium term.
Finally oil can easily become the monkey wrench. Give us any kind of oil disruption: hurricanes, pipeline breaks, international disputes, etc. and we will see the DJIA get a kick in the teeth.

I plan on selling half of my position in NBR, and pushing two-thirds of my margin into DXD Tomorrow.

*Edit* Today I did just that, selling some NBR and picking up some DXD.

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