Sunday, August 20, 2006

The Future Looks Bright

One of the biggest topics in America today is energy prices. So a logical long term investment includes renewable energy. Wind ethanol, geothermal, or solar: they are all useful. The question is which one will make you the most money. That being said, buy Suntech Power Holdings (STP) here's why,

1. Wind power companies don't seem viable as a safe investment since the government must give out incentives for these companies to be profitable.
2. Ethanol companies have been hyped recently, as many gas stations are now using the fuel. It will be a great renewable energy source, but the market needs to settle a bit, as investors have already profited here and valuations were a bit overdone.
3. Geothermal stocks are fine, but I don't think they will ever get the spotlight they deserve, because too many people don't understand the process. A congressman won't support an energy source that the public is uneducated about.

That's what this really comes down to. Our politicians will be the main supporters of alternative energy as Americans are finally getting fed up with high energy prices and global warming.

This is why I am suggesting solar energy. Solar stocks are off the high that we reached early this year, and are ready for another round.

Let’s look at the 3 most likely candidates:

ESLR– Forward P/E of -24.60 (yes they are still unprofitable). Recently the CEO sold about 1/5 of his shares. Ouch, I want my CEO buying more shares. Also due to research and development, ESLR had a larger loss than expected in its latest earnings report.

SPWR– Forward P/E of 106.10. Last week the CEO sold 2/3 of his shares. Again, ouch. Average earnings news here (for a solar stock).

STP– Forward P/E of 45.70. No sells yet by the CEO. STP Raised guidance a week ago. Also, they are extremely profitable as they are based in China, keeping their labor costs very low.

The biggest possible threat to solar power companies is a shortage of silicon, and STP decided to cover their bases by signing a 10 year contract with MEMC electronic materials in which they will provide silicon wafers. Nothing but positive articles here.

In no way am I saying that the other two solar companies mentioned are bad stocks to own, they will both probably do well. STP just looks like the best one to pick up. Once again buy STP and hold, as it should do well all the way though elections in 2008 (and probably further)

Snooping through the web the other day I found Barry Ritholtz’s blog, which gave some very interesting articles on the stock market. Check them out here and here.
Kudos Barry, for the excellent research.

(Full disclosure: I bought shares of STP on 03/17/06 and 12/7/06)

*Edit* Today looks perfect to buy them, as they started around 29.5.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great post on STP. I only just found this company and am happy to see what they are doing ..for the sake of energy costs and the environment. China, with all their engineers they are supposedly pumping out ought to lead the world in the next 20 years with innovating alternative energies. They know they can never count on Oil for thier energy demand. Just imagine when the costs of solar panels makes economic sence for every American household to put on their roof and STPs panels are the ones to do so. I may not know what I'm talking about as I'm not a solar panel engineer.. but I do have common sence. Good luck and great writing!