Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Sell STP, Buy AMGN

I'm sticking with technicals. Tomorrow sell STP and buy AMGN.

Here is a 14 month weekly chart showing that STP is reaching overbought territory. Although its MACD is amazingly still headed skyward, its RSI is touching 70, something new to the stock. Also there is major resistance around 42, and we are nearing an all-time high. Finally, for candlestick users, a daily chart shows a “hanging man” indicating a possible reversal.

No need to get greedy, if you bought Suntech Power when I suggested at 34 then you would have a 14% gain. (this includes the 1.97% loss after-hours)

Time is ripe for Amgen again. We sold last time at 76 and the stock is back down at 69. A strong 200WMA at 66.17 will prevent from major losses. As a bonus, a weak upside-down head and shoulders pattern has emerged. (I say weak because it is not in good form)

Worst case scenario, the stock breaks 200DMA support and falls to 68 or 66. More likely is another race to 76.

To put things in perspective, AMGN has a better chance of profit and less risk of falling than STP at these levels.
-Chris