My Picks in 2006

Profit/Loss

RMD - 10% Gain
CHCI - 35% Gain
HAL - 11% Gain
HANS – 33% Gain
AMGN – 9% Gain
WTR – 11% Gain
CME – 0% Push
DXD – 16% Loss
NTDOY- 21% Gain
LZB – 12% Gain
NFLX – 12% Gain
SIRI – 12% Loss
STP – 13% Gain
GLW – 11% Loss


Average Profit/Loss: 9%
Average Loser: 13%
Average Gainer: 17%
Amount Correct: 71%

So, how am I supposed to calculate if I hit my goal of a 30% gain for the year? Well, I need to figure out the average turnover for each stock and multiply that by the average P/L for each stock, and I get a good estimation of what my picks brought in.

I don’t need to make the assumption of how many stocks were in my portfolio at any given time to account for the amount of money used, because there is always 100% investment at all times. I realize that this is not always true, but I need to simplify for obvious reasons.

(901 Cumulative Days Held) / (14 Stocks) = 64.36 Days Held on Average
(64.36 Average Days Held) / (155 Total Days Traded --I started late in July) = 2.4 Turnover Rate
(2.4 Turnover)*(9% Average Profit) = 21.6% Total Profit

Gain since July 28th (The start of this blog)
DJIA = 12%
S&P500 = 12%
My Picks = 21.6%

(155 Total Days Traded) / (360 Days per Year) = 2.32 Annualizing Factor
(2.32 Annualizing Factor) * (21.6% Total Profit) = 50.1% Annualized Gain

I wouldn’t have liked to sell GLW so soon, but I think it’s the only fair way to end the year. I will probably re-add it for a fresh start in 07’. There were a few areas where I could have improved, but overall I think I did well.

In my next post I will start my portfolio for 2007.
Happy New Year.
-Chris