Keep It Simple Stupid

When I started trading I thought I would beat the market with a complex valuation model.

I included everything I could. Technical factors, analyst opinions, I even used other valuation models into my own. Then I had it spit out a number 1 through 100, 100 being the best.

Every stock would spit out a number around 60. No stock ever stood out in my models. Analysts for the investment banks I used in my model would have "buy" or "outperform" ratings without reason. The analysts changed their minds sometimes monthly. There were no time lines to the investments suggested.

The problem with these services are time frame and reasoning. There are none. They don't tell us to "buy for this reason" or "sell at this point". The way I see it, they can just keep a buy rating on everything and sooner or later they will be right.

My own three rules for K.I.S.S.
1. Have a very good reason for buying a stock (technical/valuational & logical)
2. Make sure there are no conflicts (earnings, recent CEO departure, recalls, etc.)
3. Pick your timeframe (long-medium-short term)

Forget the analysts! As insider information is almost impossible to come by anymore, these guys no longer have a clue. They know just as much as you and I.
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Onward to money making. STP is ready to move up. This stock will most likely bounce on this 50DMA support line, and if not, the lowest it can go is 23. I don't know how to make this any more clear. Buy STP for the medium-long term. Barring any crazy anomalys, this stock is going higher.