Time to sell Nintendo and DXD

Take the good with the bad, and sell both positions today.

First off, Nintendo's hype is at its peak after its official launch ended today. I don't want to become victim of buy on the rumor sell on the news. Once we find out how great sales were with the initial launch, some investors may pull out. If you bought NTDOY when I suggested it at 23, you would have a 20.75% gain. The stock is currently at 27.75 with loads of momentum investors packed in. Sorry for the ugly Yahoo chart, but Stockcharts.com doesn't have ADR stocks listed.

Time to eat our loss on the UltraShort Dow30 (DXD). The Dow wont listen to reason and I don't have the time to sit on a position losing money. I'm throwing this sucker back in the pond and finding a better opportunity. If you bought DXD when I suggested at 69.5 you would have taken a 15.68% loss, as it now trades at 58.6. I still think we are overbought, but when so many people have money sitting on the sidelines and the market is the only place they want to put it, then your going to see a lot of people paying up for mediocrity.

Have a delicious Thanksgiving.
-Chris

Huge set of updates today!

I’ve been loaded with exams and essays, but I’ve done a good amount of stock research today to do some portfolio adjustments. First, lets start with the stocks I want you to let go of.

Amgen (AMGN) has finally got something to step in the way of it’s mojo. With the democrats taking control of the house and senate, all channels of communication are saying, “Drug companies will take a hit.” Well thank you for your self fulfilling prophecy. Amgen has been slowly sliding a bit, so its time to lock in the gains. I suggested Amgen at 66 and it’s time to sell now at 72.05. I will send this one off with a 9% gain.

Aqua America (WTR) took a major jump in October, and things have gotten a bit more unpredictable lately. For the short term investor I am suggesting to lock in gains. I would NOT sell this stock if I was a long term investor. Aqua America has much room to grow, and the sell I’m suggesting today is for the trader only. I suggested WTR at 21.70 and it now trades at 24.15. Lock in this 11% gain.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) looked horrible from chartist’s perspective and sadly it still does. I can’t hold onto a short if investors don’t agree, and that seems to be the case. I suggested shorting CME on a day when the stock had a 30 point jump. This means you could have shorted the stock at the top of its range and made a profit, or got in too early and lost. I will call this one a push, even though I did end up shorting myself at 517 and the stock is now at 502. For records sake this stock has been a break-even 0% gain.

Now onto the good stuff, I found a new short sell to add to the portfolio, Netflix (NFLX). I have been waiting patiently for this stock to get high enough, and it finally has. Its last earnings report was a good one, but this shouldn’t last. The whole concept around Netflix is great. For a monthly fee, you get to receive DVDs through the mail without late fees. Wonderful if it weren’t so easily outdated. Let me give a few examples of new and future technology that will steal Netflix audience:

1. Handhelds like PSP are selling their own special DVDs
2. Microsoft will start selling hi-def through Xbox Live
3. Amazon.com will start selling downloadable movies
4. Apple is starting iTV in 2007 to download movies
5. Blockbuster’s TotalAccess is similar to NFLX but allows returns directly to stores

Even if Netflix started selling downloadable movies, the question you have to ask is “Can Netflix compete with Sony, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Blockbuster?” My answer is no, not a chance.

Competitors aside, the charts look bad. This two-year chart shows a major resistance at 30, along with a lower MACD. I will be short selling Netflix in my personal portfolio.
-Chris

Stay Put For Now

No trades today, the positions suggested are all set to win this winter; with the Democrats sweeping the elections, I’m staying with the DXD position to offset potential losses. Since my objective is to make a profitable portfolio, I don’t see a reason to add or drop any of my positions just yet since they are all doing fine (minus the DXD so far, which has been acting as an insurance stock). Happy trading, and good luck out there.

Checkout this article on the election and how it affects the market
-Chris

Things Cooling Off

Time to take another look at the Dow. Charts show some bearish news, as the MACD has pulled back to levels from the 1st of October. I annotated with a dotted line where the stock price should be at. I like the fact that the Dow broke its mid Bollinger band line (previously it's support). But I don't believe that we will fall below the 50DMA. Too many bullish nuts out there.

STP is for me. There is no way around it, solar power is undervalued. This is one of the only types of power that will never go out of style. Coal emissions will only get more strict, Nuclear Plants are not wanted near cities, populations keep growing. I don't see a more viable clean, efficient, renewable energy source anywhere. Long term players should stock up on STP at these levels. The stock is about a point above the long standing support around 23. This is no time to go soft on solar. I would stock up on Monday if I didn't already today.
-Chris