Sunday, October 22, 2006

Interest in Shorts

Today I'll throw out a few stocks I'm looking at with interest. I haven't done my due diligence, so these are just ideas for those who are looking for oddball stocks.

Pre Paid Legal Services (PPD) has a short interest of 69.92%. This means that out of all shares held, about 70% are from investors who are short the stock. You could interpret this in two ways:

1. Investors are right, and this stock will take a tumble

2. The stock has been climbing so Short Interest Theory will take hold, pushing the stock higher.

To the right is a one year weekly chart showing the high SlowSTO trying to consolidate. Expect volitility.

Next, is a stock that I'm considering adding to my picks as a short sell candidate, Netflix (NFLX). It's short interest is also high (although nowhere near PPD) at 22%. The mid-Bollinger band is looking to be its new resistance line; the 200WMA will be the real test. This is also a one year weekly chart.

Third is a stock we all love to hate, General Motors (GM). Short interest is a moderate 12% so don't look there for clues. The charts, however, show a short story worth of information.

From the beginning of the year GM has managed to climb all the way up to 33, but the past three months investors have been apprehensive about putting in new money. The problem is hovering above the 200WMA at 35. This line in the sand is a second strong resistance from a year ago that could send the stock right back down even if it crossed its 200WMA.

The daily chart is showing a lot of negative MACD correlation. The main thing keeping me from shorting GM is what could be construed to be a flag pattern on the weekly chart above.

I'm curious to see how these three will pan out. Time for some pumpkin pie.
-Chris

*Edit* Short Interest Theory holds true as PPD hits over 10% intra-day, NFLX reports good earnings causing shorts to panic upwards of 18% (afterhours included), and GM adds over 5%.

1 comment:

Zek said...

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